Topic: 2006
One other thing in the closing of my blog, I want to make a few predictions about the mid-term elections (and the 2008 election too).
There is still time left in a lot of races, and a lot can change over night, but this is how I think it will go down this November.
Senate Competative Races
Democratic pick-ups
Pennsylvania: Casey
Rhode Island: Whitehouse
Republican pick-ups
Maryland: Steele
GOP Keepers
Missouri: Talent
Tennessee: Corker
Virginia: Allen
Montana: Burns
Nevada: Ensign
Arizona: Kyl
Ohio: DeWine
Democratic Keepers
Connecticut: Lieberman (Dem keep unless he becomes true Independent or Republican)
New Jersey: Menendez
The House of Representatives
I think there is surely a "throw the bums out" mentality right now that is fueled by Democratic anger over the Republican management of the government over the past 14 years (and especially since the election of George W. Bush in 2000). Therefore, Democrats will always rate Congress negatively though they will approve of their own Democratic representatives. Therefore, there isn't quite the anti-incumbency mentality out there that one would think.
Furthermore, I think a lot of Republicans are dissapointed that the Congress has not done its job. They have not secured the borders in a meaningul way, cut spending, cleaned out corruption, fix Social Security, and, in a non-partisan issue, made the Medicare druge program able to negotiate prices and therefore keep spending down. A lot of people are upset, but that doesn't mean they are becoming Democrats. Dems are excited about bringing back the goold ole' days when they were the ones abusing their power (and yes, sexually assaulting underage pages as was the case of Gerry Studds who had sex with a 17 year old page and then was re-elected six more times to Congress after being censured). Republicans are being honest that they want Congress to behave better and stick to the principles of the Contract with America, and the reasons why they threw out the Democratic bums in 1994.
But again, that doesn't mean they are going to vote Democratic. It means they might stay home, or it might mean that districts here and there will be lost. Tom DeLay's and Mark Foley's seats will be lost, probably, because a judge forced their names to remain on the ballot. This, despite the fact that Bob Torricelli was allowed to be replaced by Frank Lautenberg illegally by the New Jersey Supreme Court. But Republicans are accepting it.
Seats will be lost by the GOP, but how many? Some argue that it will be a blow-out, and up to 40 seats will be liquidated and handed over to the Democrats. Others argue that somewhere around 12-20, where 15 are needed to give the Democrats the advantage.
I think the Republicans will maintain a 2-4 seat majority in the House because people often say "Congress is corrupt, but not my Congressman". And sometimes, Congress is corrupt, and so is my Congressman, but my Congressman is in my party so I'm sticking with him. Such is the case with scandalized Harry Reid, who made over a million dollars in a seedy land deal, or Bob Menendez, who has been accused of conflicts of interest in renting out property to a tax-exempt organization at lower than market rates while trying to get that organization federal funding which basically gets paid to him via the rent (upwards of $300,000 has been paid to him). The point is that people ignore scandal many times if the politician has a D or an R next to their name, and in these two Democratic cases this is the case. People also re-elect their leaders, like Ray Nagin, even in light of grotesque incompetence.
The GOP will hold on for dear life, and that may not be a good thing for the party. Of course, many say it's better never to lose, while others say you have to take a step back before you can take 2 forward. The GOP needs to learn why people are mad. Some of it has to do with Iraq, but a lot has to do with the tiring partisanship that pervades Washington. The war, the scandals, the spending, topped off by in-fighting, makes people think a change is good even if it means electing Democrats with no plan except to bash the GOP's plan. But they will hold on and limp into the 2008 elections.
2008
The Democratic ticket will look like this:
Hillary Clinton-Barack Obama
Clinton-Obama is the Democratic dream ticket. They've salivated over Hillary bringing a Clinton Restoration since 2000, and they've been brandishing "rising star" "rock star" Barack Obama, the partisan who smothers everyone with how non-partisan he is despite the facts, for a long time. Obama, they'll think, will soften the opposition to the divisive Clinton, who will bring back Clinton glory days.
The Republican ticket will look like this:
McCain-Rice
McCain-Rice is a Republican dream ticket. McCain, Mr. Maverick, who liberals, independents and many Republicans love alike, would crush the Dems in a general election. He is perceived as being the anti-Bush, who libs seem to think is liberal, and has the ability to convince conservatives to come out for him. The guy is a brilliant politician, as the last three years have shown to say the least. With Condi Rice on the ticket, the GOP can appeal to the female and African-American vote, while also uniting the McCain-Bush factions. Bush commands the purse strings of the Republican donors and McCain will need them to fend off Frist, Gingrich, Romney, Giuliani, etc etc etc, and then the Democrats. Rice would then gain experience in campaigning, something she does not have, and been in line to run for President, if she would want to serve so long, after McCain.
In such a match-up, McCain-Rice would win with the GOP taking battleground states like Maryland, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Wisconsin. The popular vote would go 56%-44%.
So those are my predictions. I start my new job on Monday, and this should be the last posting.
Again, live long and prosper...
